A daily, machine-scored operability gauge for inland African supply corridors.
Ships are tracked to the metre. The moment cargo goes inland in Africa, the data goes dark — yet that is where the risk lives. Tonstadt-AIS scores the state of the corridor gate, every day, by machine, against frozen rules.
OPEN
The gate is operating. Traffic clears.
DEGRADED
The gate operates with material restriction — delay, partial closure, constrained clearance.
CLOSED
The gate is not passable for commercial traffic.
When a gate fails, a mine's input and its output fail together.
Fuel moves in and minerals move out through the same restricted corridors, through the same single gates. One gate is load-bearing for the whole chain — in both directions at once.
Fuel in
Diesel for mines, generators and cities travels a single trunk from the coast. There is no redundant route. A closed gate is a fuel stop with a countdown attached.
Minerals out
Concentrate leaves through the same gate. Offtakers, financiers and insurers carry that corridor risk from kilometre zero — without a neutral gauge on it.
Violence on these routes is chronic; stoppage is usually fiscal — a customs post, a permit, a levy. We score the state either way, every day.
Built to be checked
The proof is not trusting the operator. The proof is that you can run it yourself.
Frozen rubric
Scoring rules are frozen before scoring starts. Changes go only through a documented amendment process — never applied backwards.
Public sources
A public source register. Anyone can see exactly what the gauge reads — and read it themselves.
Anchored ledger
Daily scores in a hash-chained ledger, anchored to Bitcoin via OpenTimestamps. Quiet rewriting is detectable by design. score → hash → chain → anchor
Independent certifier
Every methodology change is governed by an independent certifier. The rules cannot move quietly.
Scored forward calls
Calls are frozen before their window opens and scored against pre-registered criteria when it closes — hit, miss or null, on the record either way. The first call, FC-01 (window 24 June–31 August 2026), resolved NULL — no binding event occurred — and was certified by the independent certifier on 6 September 2026.
Design principle
Manipulation cost scales with payout size and duration — and every attempt writes its own evidence trail.
First corridor: Kasindi–Mpondwe
The DRC–Uganda border gate — the single direct fuel gate for the Beni–Butembo basin in eastern DRC, fed by one trunk from Mombasa.
The method transfers: any bottleneck corridor can be scored the same way. The source register is the only corridor-specific work.
The precedent already pays out.
One governed river gauge near the Rhine's bottleneck. Parametric water-level cover has been written off it since 2019, paying fixed amounts per day the level breaches a threshold.
A published, governed chokepoint state moves money. Inland African corridors have performance reports — averages, published months later. They have no governed daily state gauge. That is the gap this instrument fills.
Who it is for
Reinsurance and parametric underwriters. Mining operators. Fuel supply-chain operators. Traders and financiers with inland African exposure. Anyone whose loss begins at a gate the market does not measure.
Pilot engagements
Fixed scope, named deliverables, an end date. Tell us the chain or the node where corridor state matters to you, and we will show you what a governed daily gauge on it looks like.